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Data centers · Power

The power constraint, priced: PJM, ERCOT, nuclear and the turbine queue

PJM's 2028/2029 capacity auction cleared at the price cap of $325 per megawatt-day for a total cost of $16.4 billion, with a 6.8 GW shortfall below the 20% installed reserve margin and only about 525 MW of new resources procured — the third consecutive year at the cap. Without the price collar, the auction would have cleared near $555 per megawatt-day regionally and $777 in ComEd, for $29.7 billion.

Key takeaways

  • PJM's 2028/29 Base Residual Auction, results published 15 July 2026, cleared at the $325 per megawatt-day cap at a total cost of $16.4 billion, with a 6.8 GW shortfall and only about 525 MW of new resources including 208 MW of uprates. Record prices are not calling forth new supply.
  • The ERCOT large-load queue moved from roughly 410 GW on 9 April 2026 to 438 GW on 18 June 2026, about 90% data-center-related, to roughly 474 GW on 3 August 2026. These are gross point-in-time snapshots, not approved or energized load — the single most abused statistic in the sector. Batch Zero screening took effect 11 July 2026, provisional classifications were released 3 September 2026, and final eligibility reports are due 10 December 2026.
  • Texas Senate Bill 6 applies to loads at or above 75 MW, requiring evidence of financing, site control, timeline and interconnection readiness, with proposed PUCT rules at 16 TAC 25.194 contemplating $50,000 per megawatt of financial security — $25 million for a 500 MW facility.
  • On 5 August 2026 the Virginia State Corporation Commission ordered Dominion to develop a tariff assigning transmission costs directly to data centers and other large loads, and created a GS-5 high-load class with an 85% transmission demand rate. Dominion had sought $1.5 billion of recovery; the residential monthly increase fell from $2.90 to about $0.94 by reallocating to large loads. The 115-mile Valley Link line is the cited example. This is the template other states will copy and the most important 2026 regulatory development for underwriting.
  • GE Vernova holds 116 GW of backlog plus slot reservations, comprising 53 GW of firm equipment backlog and 63 GW of slot reservations, with second-quarter 2026 power orders up 134% organically to $16.7 billion and only 3 GW shipped in the quarter. Capacity ramps from 20 GW annualized in the third quarter of 2026 to 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030. The company is effectively sold out through 2030.
The Landside Signal

A quarterly brief on powered land, port capacity and air-cargo gateways, plus the Powered Land and Gateway Pricing Benchmarks data file.

  • Dollar per megawatt and dollar per acre benchmarks by market, with the substation-distance and voltage premiums applied
  • Every committed United States port capacity opening from 2026 through 2035, with cost, TEU and date
  • Airport-adjacent rent premiums by gateway, and the constraint map that drives them
  • The named project pipeline: site, megawatts, developer, power source, status
  • Sources and periods for every cell. Nothing unattributed.

One field. We do not sell the list, and the Signal is the only thing we send unless you ask us for something.

Nuclear procurement is now a land story

Meta secured up to 6.6 GW on 9 January 2026, the largest corporate nuclear procurement ever: up to 2.8 GW of generation plus 1.2 GW of storage from TerraPower using 345 MW Natrium units, with the first two reactors totalling 690 MW by 2032 and six more by 2035; up to 1.2 GW from Oklo using 75 MW Aurora Powerhouse units in Pike County, Ohio, roughly 85 miles from New Albany, online as soon as 2030; and 2,609 MW from Vistra, comprising 2,176 MW from existing plants plus 433 MW of uprates at Davis-Besse, Perry and Beaver Valley.

Also live: Microsoft and Constellation’s Crane Clean Energy Center restart of Three Mile Island Unit 1 on a twenty-year agreement, with a $1 billion Department of Energy loan secured against a $1.6 billion application and commercial operation expected in 2028; Amazon and Talen at Susquehanna, characterized as an $18 billion arrangement, whose 300 to 480 MW expansion amendment was rejected by FERC two votes to one; Amazon and X-energy at up to 5 GW by 2039; and Google and Kairos at 500 MW by 2035, with TVA signing a 50 MW power purchase agreement for Google loads. One instructive failure: a Meta nuclear site was scuttled by the discovery of a rare bee species. Site risk in this sector is not primarily financial.

Behind the meter is becoming permanent, not bridging

Data Center Frontier reported on 9 September 2026 that the market now treats behind-the-meter generation as a permanent portfolio asset rather than bridge power, with a typical pattern being a 500 MW campus securing only 300 MW of utility power initially. VoltaGrid ordered 1.5 GW of behind-the-meter generation equipment from INNIO on 11 February 2026. Chevron and Microsoft signed a twenty-year power agreement near Pecos, Texas in July 2026. The design shift is away from single large units toward smaller reciprocating engines for granular redundancy, which changes site layout, acoustic buffer and therefore the acreage a developer needs.

The politics, which now price into land

Good Jobs First counted 54 local moratoriums adopted and nine more proposed by early 2026, alongside state bills: Georgia HB 1012 barring permits through 1 March 2027; Maryland HB 120 barring construction unless co-located with generation; Minnesota SF 4298; New Hampshire HB 1265; New York S9144, a statewide permit moratorium; Oklahoma SB 1488 running through 1 November 2029; South Carolina H. 5286 through 1 January 2028; South Dakota SB 232 and HB 1301; Vermont S.205 through 1 July 2030; Virginia HB 1515; Michigan HR 240; and Wisconsin LRB-6377/1. Denver and Ypsilanti, Michigan have both adopted moratoria.

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The Landside Signal

A quarterly brief on powered land, port capacity and air-cargo gateways, plus the Powered Land and Gateway Pricing Benchmarks data file.

  • Dollar per megawatt and dollar per acre benchmarks by market, with the substation-distance and voltage premiums applied
  • Every committed United States port capacity opening from 2026 through 2035, with cost, TEU and date
  • Airport-adjacent rent premiums by gateway, and the constraint map that drives them
  • The named project pipeline: site, megawatts, developer, power source, status
  • Sources and periods for every cell. Nothing unattributed.

One field. We do not sell the list, and the Signal is the only thing we send unless you ask us for something.

This research was produced by Landside Partners, a commercial real estate research and advisory firm working with owners of industrial land across North America on data center, seaport and air-cargo demand. To have a specific parcel assessed, contact Brad Cohen at Landside Partners.

  • Data Centers — Pillar: US data center demand, vacancy and the pipeline that has to find land, Q2 2026.
  • Floating and Subsea Data Centers — Floating barge and subsea data center siting, marine regulation and riparian access, Q2 2026.
  • Data Center Projects — Atlas of named hyperscale and Stargate campuses with capacity and status, Q2 2026.
  • Data Center Land Pricing — Per-acre land pricing and the three measured premiums buyers pay for powered land, Q2 2026.
  • Ports — Pillar: committed, funded and dated US gateway capacity and near-port industrial pricing, Q2 2026.

Published · Last updated