Air cargo: flat volumes, rising yields, and a supply of gateway land that cannot respond

Memphis fell from third to sixth in the world in 2025, down 20.9% to 2,969,502 tonnes, on the loss of the United States Postal Service air cargo contract to UPS. Louisville grew 13.5% to 3,396,437 tonnes in the same year. A DePaul University study of January and February flight data found Louisville handling 202 flights a day, 37 more than FedEx Memphis, with 25.4% more tonnage capacity and 25.0% more volume capacity on peak days. Worldport is now the world’s largest express air hub.

Layered on top, FedEx’s Network 2.0 will close more than 475 stations by the end of 2027, roughly 30% of its facility footprint, with more than 200 already closed as of February 2026, targeting $2 billion of savings. FedEx air network flights are down 19.3% since mid-September, primarily afternoon operations. No disposition strategy has been disclosed, but 475 closures at typical station sizes is a material second-generation supply event in infill logistics submarkets over 2026 and 2027, hitting smaller markets first.

Amazon Air is rebalancing away from its own superhub, running more than 100 aircraft and more than 250 daily flights, with ten A330-300 freighters and eight additional 737 freighters under a Sun Country agreement extended to 2030, reduced activity at Cincinnati, expansion in Southern California, Texas and the Eastern Seaboard, and operations ceased at five United States airports since 2023. It now carries third-party dangerous goods, pharmaceuticals and perishables — a direct competitive entry into the verticals that justify specialized on-airport space.

Amsterdam Schiphol is the clearest case. On 11 March 2026 the Dutch Council of State annulled the government’s 2025 amendment imposing a 478,000-flight annual cap, finding the decision had not been carefully prepared and lacked sufficient reasoning, but maintained a temporary restriction of no more than 27,000 commercial movements a year between 23:00 and 07:00, which is the provision that actually binds freighter operators. On 24 March 2026 the government said it would hold to the 478,000 cap regardless. Cargo had already been leaking to other airports.

Liege is the proven beneficiary, growing 14% in 2025 to 1.3 million tonnes — the fastest growth of Europe’s ten largest cargo airports — and 11.3% in the first half of 2026 to 697,816 tonnes, on the back of a 500 million euro CargoLand programme and a deliberate shift to daytime-capable operations, now 65.5% of movements against 41% in 2020.

In the United States the analogue is Rockford. RFD handled 1.5 million tonnes in 2025, up 9.5%, drawing O’Hare-overflow freighter traffic, and Hillwood started Rockford Logistics Park 20 Phase 1, 334,800 square feet one mile from the airport, in July 2026 for an April 2027 opening. Rockford is explicitly targeting data center and AI heavy-lift business for the Iowa, Illinois and Indiana region.

Heathrow has no relief before roughly 2036. The board approved third- runway planning funding in January 2026, with planning consent targeted for 2029 and first flights around 2036. Heathrow is the United Kingdom’s biggest port by value at over 200 billion pounds of cargo annually, and that capacity shortage sustains a scarcity premium on a fixed on-airport estate.

Where capacity is being added at scale the risk runs the other way. Dubai Al Maktoum’s roughly $35 billion programme targets an ultimate 12 million tonnes of cargo a year, more than double current world-leader Hong Kong, with 68 billion dirhams, about $18.5 billion, committed as of August 2026, 17,000 piles installed, 45 million cubic metres of earth moved, and phase-one completion in 2032.